The Paris climate talks have begun and the world is watching in rapt attention as global leaders stake-out our carbon future. Meanwhile, in Canada, a recent profile of Dr. Daniel Pauly in Macleans magazine sought to understand our climate crisis from a different angle – namely, our past.

The profile, written by Evan Solomon, looks at Dr. Pauly’s ground-breaking research into “shifting baselines,” an idea he developed in the 1990’s that seeks to understand current fish population numbers in relation to their historical numbers.

“You need to know the past in order to anchor the events in the present,” said Dr. Pauly. “We know now that about half of the knowledge about fish who are not here anymore is lost every generation. Half!”

So how does Dr. Pauly’s fish population research relate to increasing carbon emissions?

“This idea is so important for climate change and the conference in Paris,” said Dr. Pauly. “The changes going on are so rapid and deep, but the loss of knowledge and contextualization from one generation to another is so subtle that often strong changes cannot be perceived.”

The Macleans article describes Canada’s baseline target for carbon dioxide limit as creeping upwards. Under the Kyoto Protocol, Canada set its baseline target to 1990 levels. Then, after Canada withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol, the baseline was reset: this time, to 2005 levels.

“Suddenly, that was the new normal,” Solomon writes.

Over the years successive negotiators at climate conferences have allowed baseline carbon dioxide emission targets to rise. Over time, these became the new normal, allowing carbon emitters – much like fishing countries – to avoid making difficult changes.

“Shifting baseline is also called collective amnesia,” said Dr. Pauly. “You don’t know the loss because it was never transmitted to you properly. You forget how it was so you find the present acceptable, normal, when it is not that at all.”

From November 20 to December 11, leaders from more than 195 countries will meet in Paris to discuss the future of the planet. But will oceans be on the agenda?

COP21, the “Conference of Parties”, is the 21st United Nations Conference on Climate Change. It is being hyped as the most important climate event since COP15 in Copenhagen, which produced the Copenhagen Accord — a political agreement that was deemed by many to be a failure. Here Yoshitaka Ota, Nereus Director (Policy), and William Cheung, Nereus Director (Science) and long-time Sea Around Us partner, discuss whether these negotiations will be successful, what’s at stake for the future of the world’s oceans, and what else can be done to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Why is this year’s event so important?

William Cheung: This will be the one to set the limits. The target is to lower global warming to a 2 degree Celsius increase by the end of the century. Current projections have the increase at 4 to 4.5 degrees. A 2 degree increase is the point where we can avoid major risk.

Yoshitaka Ota: This is the time when the global community has to come up with a consensus — south and north, developing and developed countries. We have to move forward beyond natural and regional interests.

 

Do you think this commitment is possible?

Cheung: It will be difficult but we need to make every effort to achieve that. Before the discussion, there was an invitation to each country to submit commitments to reduce their CO2 emissions. But if we sum up all the existing commitments, the estimate is that it will reduce global warming to 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, which will lead to major impacts on ocean ecosystems and their goods and services. Thus, the current commitments by the countries are not sufficient. There is still a major gap to fill. It is a challenge that all the countries should recognize and resolve in this meeting.

The effects of climate change are expected to impact developing countries the most, where there is often a large dependence on fisheries and where adaptability is more difficult. Image: “Fishing Boats, Madagascar” by Rod Waddington, CC BY-SA 2.0.

Why is this approach to global climate change negotiations not working?

Ota: In addition to setting agreements between countries, which is often difficult to achieve, this round of negotiations is trying to also add a bottom-up strategy. Each country is setting their own commitments before COP21. But the efforts are not enough to achieve the reduction we need. More work to agree on more ambitious emission limits needs to be done.

Are ocean issues being properly discussed in these negotiations?

Cheung: Historically, a lot of the discussions didn’t consider the oceans. Recently, with the push from the NGOs, scientists and other stakeholders, the importance of the oceans in the climate change debate is more visible. Given the demands and services that the oceans provide — fisheries, marine life, carbon absorption, and cultural impacts — not achieving the targets will add to the costs of insufficient actions.

What do you think the general public doesn’t know about climate change effects on oceans?

Cheung: The global ocean has already done a tremendous service to us by absorbing 93% of the additional heat caused by these emissions since the 1970s. The ocean also has captured 28% of CO2 emitted from our (and our ancestor’s) activities since 1750. However, this is achieved with great costs. As the ocean absorbs heat and CO2, its ability to moderate more CO2 emissions actually reduces. Also, acidification, warming, and deoxygenation of the oceans impact marine organisms and ecosystem services. Without the ocean, the earth is not liveable.

Ota: Our entire global environment and earth system is supported by the ocean. People with homes near the ocean are already moving because the sea levels are rising. But for many people, the concept of the ocean is that it’s far away and not their immediate concern. They think we will lose coral reefs and that the ocean will alter slightly. They think it’s a minor alteration and that we can rely on the ocean’s recovery capacity and its accommodating nature for it to come back. But there are certain changes to the ocean that are irreversible because of climate change. If your children’s children can never see coral reefs or a beautiful ocean, that’s deprivation. We shouldn’t create environmental injustice intergenerationally.

 

“There are certain changes to the ocean that are irreversible because of climate change. If your children’s children can never see coral reefs or a beautiful ocean, that’s deprivation,” says Yoshitaka Ota, Nereus Director (Policy). Image: “Coral Reef at Palmyra Atoll National Wildlife Refuge” by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, CC BY 2.0.

How is the situation different for developing versus developed countries?

Cheung: Marine areas that are more severely impacted by climate change both on land and in the oceans are in developing regions. For example, tropical Indo-Pacific regions, where there are many developing countries with a large dependence on fisheries resources, are projected to have a large decrease in potential catches because of climate change.

Ota: The issue of oceans is quite holistic, because it includes both the environmental functions of oceans at the same time as the human dimensions. With this COP, we understand the impacts of climate change on human society. Almost every sector of our society will be negatively impacted. But there is also an important discussion that we need to have on equity and social justice.

More vulnerable people are more susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Adaptability is more difficult in developing countries because they have fewer resources. The countries that rely on fisheries are not the big countries, and they are most affected by climate change. We have to share the burden, without making vulnerable people even more vulnerable. There are many things at play — north and south divisions, developing and developed divisions. Even within society, there are gender, indigenous and intergenerational issues. Our kids are going to be affected by and have to live with the results of these discussions and we need to show them that we can think beyond our own interests.

If these negotiations are not successful in lowering CO2 emissions to a sufficient level, what else can be done?

Cheung: Although COP is really important, there’s a lot of important work to be done afterwards. We have to monitor the commitments made by each country. There are bottom up changes like provinces, cities, and private sectors setting more ambitious emission limits than their countries have committed. There can be bolder changes in green technology and reducing emissions at individual levels. This creates an environment that pressures other organizations and cities to do the same. This can fill in the gaps at the country level that they may not be able to achieve at the international negotiations.

For further information or interview requests, please contact: Lindsay Lafreniere Communications Officer, Nereus Program Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries The University of British Columbia l.lafreniere@oceans.ubc.ca

 

 

 

 

 

“Fish do not need passports or visas. They don’t stay within a specific EEZ. Climate change is affecting our fisheries and what we set out to do in one country has little effect if we do not work together as a region.”

– Salifu Ceesay, PRCM forum, Praia (Cabo-Verde) 2015

Earlier this month I embarked on an exciting adventure to West Africa, to participate in a conversation on climate change and West African fisheries, together with Dr. Dyhia Belhabib, the Sea Around Us West Africa Lead, and Dr. Vicky Lam, a Sea Around Us-Nereus Post-Doctoral Research Fellow.

Our whirlwind journey spanned 16 days and 4 countries, including a Sea Around Us side-event on climate change impacts and adaptation at the PRCM 2015 (Regional Marine and Coastal Conservation Programme for West Africa), and a catch reconstruction-focused workshop in The Gambia.

Armed with countless bottles of mosquito repellant, a suitcase filled with Sea Around Us brochures and a promising itinerary, we touched down at our first destination in Africa , Praia in Cape Verde (this was mine and Vicky’s first time in the African hemisphere). At the week-long PRCM 2015 conference we had the pleasure of meeting many interesting people and hosting a side-event, chaired by Dyhia, alongside some of our West African collaborators, Salifu Ceesay (The Gambia) and Elimane Abou Kane (Mauritania).

The Sea Around Us side event, titled “Climate change impacts in West Africa and possible routes of adaptation,” was very well attended and the room was full. In attendance were representatives from the Mauritanian Institute for Fisheries Research (IMROP), The Gambian National Fisheries Department (including the director and the ministry secretary), IUCN West Africa, several NGO’s, the United Nations Environmental Program, fisher’s organizations (e.g., CAOPA), and fishers themselves, as well as our partner the MAVA Foundation, among many others. After the presentation, all participants passionately shared their experiences at a round-table discussion. With representation from most West African countries, spanning Mauritania to Sierra Leone, topics for discussion included the impacts of foreign fishing vessels, climate change observations, and the decline and migration of fish stocks. Several delegates highlighted the need to think of fisheries management in a more regional manner.

The remainder of the week was spent engaging in discussions with the IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature), SRFC (Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission), MESA (Monitoring for Environment and Security in Africa) and other groups. Outside the conference, we enjoyed delicious seafood, and touring around Santiago island on an excursion organized by the PRCM. The 8^th PRCM concluded with an urgent call for a more unified and collective approach in fisheries management strategies.

Following the PRCM conference, Vicky began her journey back to Vancouver, en route to China for another conference, while Dyhia took a short trip to Gland, Switzerland, for a MAVA Foundation strategic meeting, before re-joining me in Dakar, Senegal, for the next major Sea Around Us engagement event of our trip. Together with Dyhia’s husband Allan and her baby Ilyas, we drove from Dakar to Banjul (The Gambia). What was originally supposed to be a short three hour drive, turned into an eventful twelve hour journey, featuring an interesting episode at the Senegalese-Gambian border crossing, multiple police checkpoints and one extremely chaotic ferry crossing in Barra. Exhausted but relieved to arrive in Banjul, we were eager to immerse ourselves in the joint workshop on catch reconstructions between the Department of Fisheries of the Gambia and the Sea Around Us.

The workshop was attended by over 40 participants from diverse backgrounds, including various governmental departments, research units, educational institutions, industry members, media staff and the country representative of the FAO in The Gambia. The primary objective was to discuss the Sea Around Us Gambian catch reconstruction and approaches to further improve the overall fisheries catch reporting in the country. We conversed on the importance of fisheries observers and the protection and effectiveness of these observers, as well as the effect that desensitization may have on accurate reporting and data collection at sea.

James Gomez, the Director of Research from the Ministry of Education in The Gambia, highlighted the importance of interdepartmental collaboration. He urged for better policy to facilitate information sharing, stating: “Data that is useful for the nation should not be hard to access.” I thought the workshop was a success, with recommendations ranging from updating data collection forms to better reflect the fish species currently caught, to building capacity and provide data collection training to staff, to validating fisheries catch data with all stakeholders to reduce discrepancies.

Although our West Africa trip had quickly come to an end, and we find ourselves back within the Global Fisheries Cluster (www.global-FC.ubc.ca) at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, the engagement aspect of the project continues and our partnerships in West Africa are today more integrated.

A collaborative research initiative between the Sea Around Us and the various Departments of Fisheries from the seven West African countries is expected to launch in early 2016. Each country will nominate candidates to visit the Sea Around Us for 10-15 days on a scholarship. Candidates will attend training seminars, work on catch reconstructions and other related issues identified, and work towards a peer reviewed publication. The partnership, funded by the MAVA Foundation, will provide valuable training to West African fisheries researchers, and facilitate an interdisciplinary and cross-cultural approach to examining fisheries issues, furthering collaboration between researchers at the Sea Around Us and in West Africa.

 

Last October Dr. Daniel Pauly and Dr. Dyhia Belhabib gave a presentation in Seattle to a group of Sea Around Us website users, describing new data tools and reiterating past and current research.

Dr. Pauly described why catch reconstructions are important and how they are conducted, and Dr. Belhabib  narrowed in on a specific case study in Gabon.

The case study in Gabon — as Dr. Pauly described — “could be replicated over 200 times” as numerous other case studies have been completed globally.

The video presentation was accompanied by a PowerPoint presentation, available here.

Water spills from the edge of a giant, melting iceberg on the cover of the November 2015 issue of Science.

The special issue focused on the effects of climate change on our ocean systems, and highlighted research by Dr. William Cheung, an Associate Professor with the Changing Ocean Research Unit at the University of British Columbia, and Director (Science) of the Nereus Program. The journal used a map Dr. Cheung and his team created that describes the effects of changing water temperatures on fish species migration.

“This is the first global map that projects changes in species distribution and its impacts on marine biodiversity under climate change,” said Dr. Cheung in an email.

The map depicts the projected increase of fish species found in waters in higher latitudes as global waters warm. But while the number of species increases near the poles, many would disappear from equatorial waters.

The map was used in an article about boarfish – a bright orange, small and spiny fish that is exploding in numbers in the north Atlantic. As author Marianne Lavelle writes in Science:

“The boarfish has become one symbol of an emerging global issue: the often surprising disruptions that climate change can create in the world’s fisheries, as marine populations move, flourish, and wither as a result of warming seas.”

But the boarfish is only one among many species that are changing migration patterns due to climate change.

A study conducted by researchers at Rutgers University, who analyzed more than 40 years of census data on 350 species off North America, found that some 70% of species were shifting their ranges or moving to shallower or deeper waters because of changing water temperatures.

A previous study by Dr. Cheung – which was co-authored by Dr. Daniel Pauly from the Sea Around Us, and published as a letter in Nature – found that as water temperatures in high latitudes warm, an increase of tropical fish should be found in fishermen’s nets.

With the Paris climate change conference starting on November 30^th, Dr. Cheung wants to see ocean warming on the agenda.

As scientists, politicians, and media from around the world descend on the capital city to try and forge a consensus on how to battle climate change, he believes warming of the oceans should be a priority in the discussions.

“Any solution without considering the ocean is incomplete,” he said.